Statism and the Null Hypothesis (from Fail Quotes)

Started by Ex_Nihil0, November 24, 2010, 01:48:09 AM

Previous topic - Next topic
December 04, 2010, 05:05:47 PM #75 Last Edit: December 04, 2010, 05:08:34 PM by Ex_Nihil0
Quote from: MrBogosity on December 04, 2010, 07:03:50 AM
Because you've got the falsification part completely and utterly wrong. "If A, then B" does NOT imply "If not A, then not B." The REAL falsification principle is:

If A, then B
Not B
Therefore, not A

This problem of verification the way you've described it and how falsification is the solution is easily represented by Wason's Four-Card Task, elucidated here: http://skepticwiki.org/index.php/Wason%27s_Four-card_Task

That was a typo.  Honestly, it was not intentional.  I did not mean to say that Modus Tollens was Denying the antecedent.

Well, it's a funny typo, then, because it matches perfectly the problem with what you've been saying. Confirmation really doesn't do you any good. Only falsification does.

December 04, 2010, 05:24:34 PM #77 Last Edit: December 04, 2010, 05:27:49 PM by surhotchaperchlorome
Wow.
I'm surprised this topic has lasted for six pages.
"When the mob and the press and the whole world tell you to move, your job is to plant yourself like a tree beside the river of truth, and tell the whole world—'No. You move.'"
-Captain America, Amazing Spider-Man 537

Quote from: MrBogosity on December 04, 2010, 07:52:00 AM
Yes, Dawkins is talking about "why" in the context of purpose or meaning, not in a causal or theoretical sense. It's the same point he made in his "Growing Up in the Universe" lectures. Bees don't make honey for us to eat, flowers don't look pretty so that we can enjoy them. They do so because it's been the best way to pass their genes on to the next generation. But that latter statement is no less a "why" than the former statements; it just doesn't have the metaphysical presumptions that the others do.

As for Kaku, he's a brilliant physicist, but I think he makes the same mistake as a lot of deists and pantheists in that he tries to define God as being the fundamental underpinnings of the universe--in his case, the strings of string theory. But if these things cannot be said to be conscious in any meaningful sense, then how is it God in the sense that any average English speaker would recognize the word?

I really don't get what point you think Kaku is making that you think makes your point. Look at my video again: I say essentially the same thing about mermaids as he does about unicorns.

The difference between what you say and what Kaku says is that such things are undecidable, therefore, not scientific.  This means you can't subject non-scientific ideas to the NULL hypothesis, which is scientific, and be logically correct.  Using the NULL implies that mermaids and unicorns are things you can mathematically predict the likelihood of, which is impossible! 

Injecting the NULL into metaphysics would be dogmatism, or at least border on dogmatism since you are using it to make an assumption, not a conclusion about metaphysical statements.  No, I take that back.  Invoking the NULL is dogmatic because it assumes that you can calculate probabilities of metaphysical statements being true. 

The only error I see Kaku making is being open mined about valid questions he cannot answer because those valid questions are not scientific (yet).  As you say, string theory doesn't lend itself to consciousness, but he still dares to ask the question, where did string theory come from?  You end up with an endless series of questions, and infinite regress.  I believe this line of reasoning does nothing but further the case for Gould's notion of "Separate Magisteria".  In this view, an atheist isn't entitled to make metaphysical claims anymore then a creationists is entitled to make scientific claims.  Either way, you end up with dogma.

Lets be bluntly honest for a moment.  The only reason why any scientific atheist would be interested in shutting down metaphysical thinking isn't to be intellectually honest or open mined, but to stop religious nut groups from imposing their insanity on everybody.  Yet, on the about face, many (but not all) of the most prominent scientific atheists will try to impose their own political will based the their own dogmas about metaphysics.  I.e. Richard Dawkins and Thunderf00t pushing socialism societal engineering on the basis that humans are both social, and existing without an divine edict.  If one is to assume no purpose to the universe, then one's own mental superiority over the average man becomes a justification for imposing a purpose on the average man and on society.  After all, when you are the smartest and in a position of influence or power, you've become a high ranking monkey in the troop and that's what the monkeys at the top get to do.  Atheism's frequent connections to Liberalism and Stateism in its adherents have got to be for a reason, and I think this is why.  Dogmatic thinking seems to always leads to statism, be it secular or religious.

Perhaps if concluding that legitimacy is a undecidable metaphysical statement, their is no scientific way to justify legitimacy.  If we use the NULL hypothesis for legitimacy, then we must assume Anarchy.  If, however, we assume nothing, then whom the individual gets to choose as leader becomes a matter of preference and individual choice, not something concrete or democratic.  I, therefore, see Agnosticism as more compatible with, if not analogous to, Libertarianism then Atheism. 

Quote from: Ex_Nihil0 on December 04, 2010, 06:47:30 PMThe difference between what you say and what Kaku says is that such things are undecidable,

There's a difference between things that are undecidABLE and things that are undecidED. And for things that truly are undecidable, they do not make any useful statements about reality.

QuoteThis means you can't subject non-scientific ideas to the NULL hypothesis,

But I can with mermaids, unicorns, and, yes, God.

QuoteUsing the NULL implies that mermaids and unicorns are things you can mathematically predict the likelihood of,

No, it has nothing to do with probability or likelihood. It has to do with which statement can be falsified.

QuoteIn this view, an atheist isn't entitled to make metaphysical claims

Good thing we don't do that, then.

QuoteAtheism's frequent connections to Liberalism and Stateism in its adherents have got to be for a reason,

And what about its frequent connections to Libertarianism?

December 04, 2010, 10:13:28 PM #80 Last Edit: December 04, 2010, 10:54:18 PM by surhotchaperchlorome
Reminds me of a video from Stargazer5871 where he points out the way many stateless societies end is by the population developing an acceptance of violence through religion.
"When the mob and the press and the whole world tell you to move, your job is to plant yourself like a tree beside the river of truth, and tell the whole world—'No. You move.'"
-Captain America, Amazing Spider-Man 537

Quote from: MrBogosity on December 04, 2010, 08:46:55 PM
There's a difference between things that are undecidABLE and things that are undecidED. And for things that truly are undecidable, they do not make any useful statements about reality.

Usefulness isn't a basis for determining what is or isn't real, it only relates statement being scientific.  And before we go full circle back into your citation of mathmatical proofs, let me explain why that isn't conclusivly isn't a valid argument for certainty of what is real.

Mathematical proofs are based on axioms which are statements said to be self evidently true.  In this case, you have three choices.  1) You accept that said statements are self evident, in which case you are making an argument for rationality as a basis for truth against empirical evidence, 2) you use empirical evidence to justify axioms as true, which meas that every logical proof ever made is rendered uncertain because they are ultimately based on induction.

A triangle will always have 180 degrees inside it because that's how they are defined, not because we observed triangles to be that way.  A triangle is a perfect idea that exists only in the abstract world of our minds.  What the human brain does is pick three points in space and draws imaginary lines to connect them, so a triangle is a pattern that we recognize, just like a face.  It doesn't prove anything about the nature of reality any more then seeing Jesus on burnt toast.  The only difference between the two patterns are the areas of the brain they stimulate.  

If I may go on a rabbit trail for a bit, I speculate that mathematics is largely about pattern recognition in the brain.  If your brain didn't form with the full set of mathematical patterns to perceive them "out of the box", then they must be learned in math class.  For some kids math and logic are intuitive, while for other children math and logic seem to them like an arbitrary set of rules with no basis.  Yet, those students who shy away from math and science tend to do better with the liberal arts.  I think this could explain why some children struggle with math, while others grasp it immediately.  Being a parent yourself, I would be interested in your insight on this subject.

Unlike the patterns we are pre-wired to recognize (like faces), meaning of words derives from experience, so only that which we have experienced can be defined.  This is, I think, where much of the trouble with metaphysics comes in, since it is speculation about what is unknown at a given moment and what is forever unknowable.  

When John Dalton's atomic theory came out, it was criticized for a century by the positivists at the time because his idea of the atom was still as much a metaphysical claim as Democritus' claim.  The only difference is that Dalton had far superior data.  Never the less, Dalton's idea of the atom was open to criticism because atoms could just as easily been an artificial construct of his mathematics as his critics pointed out.  Also, the influence of Democritus' idea can be seen in Dalton's thinking just by virtue of him using the name in his own published works and by the fact that he, like Democritus, thought they were indivisible units of matter.  Besides, it doesn't matter if he used the word atom or not.  There had been long speculation since Galileo that atoms existed, and Newton thought they existed as well, though he used the term "particle" instead and didn't really consider how "particles" related to gas pressure.  That problem, as you know, would later be solved by Dalton.

Anyway, the picture you painted about how Dalton concluded the existence of atoms was cherry picking in its own right since it ignores his criticisms and influences.  He never had direct evidence of atoms, only a mathematical inference to their existence.  This made his claim that atoms exist a metaphysical claim even up to this point.  Your distinction between undecided and undecidable is not relevant since metaphysics will always be part of the scientific process as much as it was for Dalton.

QuoteBut I can with mermaids, unicorns, and, yes, God.

Not so.  If a statement isn't scientific, it isn't subject to scientific criticism.  

QuoteNo, it has nothing to do with probability or likelihood. It has to do with which statement can be falsified.

Which is why the NULL doesn't apply to metaphysical statements!  If a statement isn't falsifiable to begin with, you can't stick it into your falsification algorithm because they aren't meaningful to it.  You think way to much like a computer.  In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if you were a programmer because the way you analyse my arguments is more like how somebody examines computer code for syntax errors, not like somebody who is critical of the main point.

QuoteGood thing we don't do that, then.

If you apply the NULL to a particular metaphysical statement, you are being dogmatic about that particular metaphysical statement!  There are no binary choices in metaphysics, only infinite possibility for each given idea.  You can't mix separate magisteria and expect to get a logical outcome.  I think it clear to me now that Atheists are distinct from Agnostics based on the application of the NULL to metaphysics and possibly the acceptance that the truth of axioms can be taken for granted, which is dogmatic in its own right.

QuoteAnd what about its frequent connections to Libertarianism?

Using your line of reasoning, Anarchy logically follows from Atheism, not Libertarianism.  If you believe that a Libertarian Government is best, then you'd better come at it from an Agnostic point of view.  Atheist Libertarians lack logical consistency, which the Atheist Statists love to exploit when they debate Libertarians.Among Atheists, Atheist Libertarians are in the minority for a reason.  

You will never convince statist atheists with an elite minds to reject statism because they use their superior intelligence as positive evidence for legitimacy, and from that legitimacy they install purpose where they believe purpose, with absolute or near absolute certainty, never existed.  I.e. Thunderf00t and Dawkins thrust a purpose upon society, such as scientific discovery or helping the poor.  In no small way, debating Thunderf00t or Dawkins over statism is actually a debate against their respective egos.  The only way to win such an argument is the dissolution of their egos through Agnostic arguments.  What I am saying would be easier to understand if you've ever experienced the dissolution of your own ego for a period of time.  Such times are the only times you can be genuinely honest with yourself and fairly consider possibilities you would otherwise be too suborn to consider or too suborn to dismiss.  It is obscenely difficult for one to look at ideas fairly and without the burden of selfish desire or social programming.  This is partly why I reject the NULL being applied to metaphysical claims and statements.

One other point I wish to address.  A while back you said that my thinking was like a creationist.  I sort of see how you could think that, but consider the strategy of a creationist or even a Holocaust denier and where they part ways with me.  First, they point out the uncertain nature of our knowledge and use this to say that all of science could be wrong.  I'll grant them that so far, but only because it is entirely possible to imagine the whole of my experience to be an illusion.  If true, I can't really do anything with that, but I'm at least open to it as one of many possibilities regarding the true nature of reality.  After making the case for Agnosticism, they attempt to tip the scales through emotional appeals (i.e. Jesus loves you) and threats of violence (i.e. believe this way or go to Hell).  If the very foundation of rationality can be debased so easily, then what reason do I have to reject or accept a metaphysical claim beyond my own personal desires and preferences, which are entirely subjective and subject to change, if I can't even be sure if the creationist himself actually exists?  

If they continue to press the point and say "How do you know?  You weren't there!"  The simple response is saying back to them, "How do you know?  You weren't there!"  Their argument self destructs at that point, leaving you back at Agnosticism and perhaps even to Nihilism, which I consider to be Agnosticisms strongest form.  

Quote from: surhotchaperchlorome on December 04, 2010, 10:13:28 PM
Reminds me of a video from Stargazer5871 where he points out the way many stateless societies end is by the population developing an acceptance of violence through religion.

In those cases, religion would be an excuse for violence.  Take religion away, and the'll find a secular excuse.  At the end of the day, people are just primates who just want to have their way and dominate those they can exploit.  Domination and submission are peculiar afflictions to the human species, aren't they?

December 05, 2010, 01:06:18 AM #83 Last Edit: December 05, 2010, 01:08:42 AM by surhotchaperchlorome
Quote from: Ex_Nihil0 on December 05, 2010, 12:15:26 AM
In those cases, religion would be an excuse for violence.  Take religion away, and the'll find a secular excuse.  At the end of the day, people are just primates who just want to have their way and dominate those they can exploit.  Domination and submission are peculiar afflictions to the human species, aren't they?
Then why didn't it happen during the hundred years before the en mass religious indoctrination?

As Stargazer5871 has observed, "Statism is all well and good until you realize that people in the state are human too. If your claim is that people need to be ordered around and controlled, who will order around and control the people in the state? Statism necessitates the existence of gods and only made sense back when people thought the heads of state were gods. When you realize gods don't exist, all arguments for a state self-detonate."  Emphasis added by me
"When the mob and the press and the whole world tell you to move, your job is to plant yourself like a tree beside the river of truth, and tell the whole world—'No. You move.'"
-Captain America, Amazing Spider-Man 537

Quote from: surhotchaperchlorome on December 05, 2010, 01:06:18 AM
Then why didn't it happen during the hundred years before the en mass religious indoctrination?

As Stargazer5871 has observed, "Statism is all well and good until you realize that people in the state are human too. If your claim is that people need to be ordered around and controlled, who will order around and control the people in the state? Statism necessitates the existence of gods and only made sense back when people thought the heads of state were gods. When you realize gods don't exist, all arguments for a state self-detonate."  Emphasis added by me

I was speaking in general, not to the video you referenced.  I would consider the "War On Drugs" to be a secularly motivated war, even though some of its participants might have religious motivation.  Its continued existence largely stems from the financial gains people make off of it.  The black market wants prices to stay high and prison construction and management companies want to keep filling up our jails.

December 05, 2010, 01:17:50 AM #85 Last Edit: December 05, 2010, 01:20:18 AM by surhotchaperchlorome
Quote from: Ex_Nihil0 on December 05, 2010, 01:13:33 AM
I was speaking in general, not to the video you referenced.  I would consider the "War On Drugs" to be a secularly motivated war, even though some of its participants might have religious motivation.  Its continued existence largely stems from the financial gains people make off of it.  The black market wants prices to stay high and prison construction and management companies want to keep filling up our jails.

In other words, you were weaseling. :P

I consider the state to be a religion, much like Dale Everett (the anarchyinyourhead guy) does.  Though it isn't a religion in the colloquial sense, I'd say it still fits the bill rather well.
"When the mob and the press and the whole world tell you to move, your job is to plant yourself like a tree beside the river of truth, and tell the whole world—'No. You move.'"
-Captain America, Amazing Spider-Man 537

December 05, 2010, 01:26:45 AM #86 Last Edit: December 05, 2010, 01:28:57 AM by surhotchaperchlorome
And speaking 'secular' violence on a mass scale: [yt]zdiD5iC3rno[/yt]
"When the mob and the press and the whole world tell you to move, your job is to plant yourself like a tree beside the river of truth, and tell the whole world—'No. You move.'"
-Captain America, Amazing Spider-Man 537

Quote from: surhotchaperchlorome on December 05, 2010, 01:17:50 AM
In other words, you were weaseling. :P

I consider the state to be a religion, much like Dale Everett (the anarchyinyourhead guy) does.  Though it isn't a religion in the colloquial sense, I'd say it still fits the bill rather well.

What are my weasel words, exactly?  The war on drugs is a great example of secular violence.  What does this have to do with Hitler and other tyrants?  It would seem to me that their quest for power and megalomania was a result of their primate ancestry, not their religious beliefs which you can't actually be sure of since they were involved in politics.  One thing I do know is that religion is a tool of propaganda in history.  Nationalism and xenophobia are two other major tools as well.  Over the past century, however, the theories of Freud used to change the nature of Public Relations for to exploit the "primitive and irrational desires" of masses of individuals.  You should search for "Century of The Self" a BBC documentary that shows the evolution of propaganda over the last century.  It made me question just how many of my ideas are actually my own, because people can be so easily manipulated by their most basic desires and needs.

I consider Church and State are two different, but closely related things.  Consider them to be like two closely related species with a common ancestor, the Church State.  Church functions according to a religion, while the State functions according to an ideology.


Quote from: Ex_Nihil0 on December 05, 2010, 12:06:37 AMUsefulness isn't a basis for determining what is or isn't real, it only relates statement being scientific.

You keep trying to fall back on this excuse, but it doesn't work. If a statement is not useful for determining reality, then--DUH--it can't be used to determine reality!

QuoteMathematical proofs are based on axioms which are statements said to be self evidently true.

No, they're based on definitions. Example: "a = a; if a = b then b = a; if a = b and b = c then a= c." This is NOT a statement of self-evident truth as a lot of people try to make it out to be; it's the definition of the concept of "equal."

QuoteA triangle will always have 180 degrees inside it because that's how they are defined,

No, a triangle is defined as a polygon with three sides. The fact that the inner angles total 180 degrees is a PROOF, NOT a definition.

QuoteWhen John Dalton's atomic theory came out, it was criticized for a century by the positivists at the time because his idea of the atom was still as much a metaphysical claim as Democritus' claim.  The only difference is that Dalton had far superior data.

AND his idea was falsifiable. It COULD have been proven wrong; it wasn't.

QuoteBesides, it doesn't matter if he used the word atom or not.  There had been long speculation since Galileo that atoms existed, and Newton thought they existed as well, though he used the term "particle" instead and didn't really consider how "particles" related to gas pressure.  That problem, as you know, would later be solved by Dalton.

Actually, as I pointed out earlier, that was corpuscularism, not atomism.

QuoteAnyway, the picture you painted about how Dalton concluded the existence of atoms was cherry picking in its own right since it ignores his criticisms and influences.  He never had direct evidence of atoms, only a mathematical inference to their existence.

And how are you going to test something without having that first? EVERY new idea in science starts out that way. That's NOT cherry-picking, and it's dishonest of you to try and claim that it is.

QuoteThis made his claim that atoms exist a metaphysical claim even up to this point.

No, it made it a testable (falsifiable) theory.

QuoteWhich is why the NULL doesn't apply to metaphysical statements!

Which is why they can't be used to determine reality.

QuoteIf you apply the NULL to a particular metaphysical statement, you are being dogmatic about that particular metaphysical statement!

No, I am not! I am ONLY wanting to test if that metaphysical statement has any use to us for determining what is real and what is not. That's the OPPOSITE of being dogmatic!

QuoteUsing your line of reasoning, Anarchy logically follows from Atheism, not Libertarianism.  If you believe that a Libertarian Government is best, then you'd better come at it from an Agnostic point of view.  Atheist Libertarians lack logical consistency, which the Atheist Statists love to exploit when they debate Libertarians.Among Atheists, Atheist Libertarians are in the minority for a reason.

You have yet to do ANYTHING to support this.

QuoteIt is obscenely difficult for one to look at ideas fairly and without the burden of selfish desire or social programming.  This is partly why I reject the NULL being applied to metaphysical claims and statements.

Funny; that's the exact same reason why I insist that they MUST be!

QuoteIf they continue to press the point and say "How do you know?  You weren't there!"  The simple response is saying back to them, "How do you know?  You weren't there!"  Their argument self destructs at that point,

You mean, like yours did earlier when I asked you how you know that nothing can be known?