Author Topic: Podcast for 13 May 2018  (Read 355 times)

MrBogosity

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Podcast for 13 May 2018
« on: May 13, 2018, 06:01:03 PM »


News of the Bogus:
14:08 - Biggest Bogon Emitter: Amazon https://signal.org/blog/looking-back-on-the-front/

19:40 - Idiot Extraordinare: Illinois police http://www.pantagraph.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/if-illinois-legalizes-marijuana-what-happens-to-pot-sniffing-dogs/article_6d67b6d3-cc27-5053-ba8c-eb641611c28b.html

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evensgrey

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Re: Podcast for 13 May 2018
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2018, 01:09:27 PM »
I think you're haystack analogy doesn't quite work like that.  The UK police are trying to find specific needles in a needlestack.  Given that they are planning on putting 19 million MORE faces into the database to be looked for, they will have a substantial percentage of the population of the UK in the system.  Given the vagaries of appearance and recognition, there are bound to be several people whom human strangers would be hard pressed to quickly differentiate between given photo references (and we're pretty good at telling each other apart, certainly better than most image recognition systems are going to be), never mind if the computers can tell them apart by whatever criteria they're using.

Altimadark

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Re: Podcast for 13 May 2018
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2018, 02:59:46 PM »
I was thinking the hay in this context would be the additional false positives each wanted face would produce.
Failing to clean up my own mistakes since the early 80s.

MrBogosity

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Re: Podcast for 13 May 2018
« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2018, 01:29:52 PM »
I think you're haystack analogy doesn't quite work like that.  The UK police are trying to find specific needles in a needlestack.  Given that they are planning on putting 19 million MORE faces into the database to be looked for, they will have a substantial percentage of the population of the UK in the system.

All that does is increase the chances of a false positive. With the tiny amount of true positives they have, they'll waste FAR more resources checking out the dead ends. And again, we have no way of knowing the rate of false negatives.

From a Bayesian standpoint, being pegged by this system means you're more likely to be an innocent than someone they're looking for. The more hay you add, the more hay gets detected as needles, even if you do manage to put the odd needle in while you're doing it.

evensgrey

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Re: Podcast for 13 May 2018
« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2018, 10:53:38 PM »
All that does is increase the chances of a false positive. With the tiny amount of true positives they have, they'll waste FAR more resources checking out the dead ends. And again, we have no way of knowing the rate of false negatives.

From a Bayesian standpoint, being pegged by this system means you're more likely to be an innocent than someone they're looking for. The more hay you add, the more hay gets detected as needles, even if you do manage to put the odd needle in while you're doing it.

Actually, assuming those 19 million are actually people they're looking for, at that level the odds are swinging back in favor of real detections.  That slice ALONE is about 30% of the UK's population.  Once you're looking for everyone, there's no such thing as a false positive.  Of course, it also means you don't get to follow up on anything, either.